Before the start of the 2021-2022 NBA season, I want to give my predictions for the final NBA standings and a few bets on over/under win totals. Want to revisit this post once the season ends. So anyways, let’s get started.
East:
Nets - Not worried about the Kyrie news too much for the regular season. Nets added great depth this offseason, including Patty Mills, and Kyrie is the more injury prone of the big 3. Will be interesting storyline the team will have to deal with all season long.
Bucks - Bucks also added some more depth to their bench. I do think their regular season defense will be worse than the past few years but are still in the top tier of the east with the Nets.
Hawks - The Hawks are one of the deepest teams in the league for the regular season. Lou Williams will give them a full season of having an off the bench guard to run the offense to help with the non-Trae Young minutes, something Rondo did not help with much last season.
76ers - One of the more difficult teams to predict for obvious reasons. Will Ben Simmons ever play a game for Philly this season? When will he be traded? Will he be traded? Probably so for that last question but still.
Heat - One of the bigger winners from free agency, but how much will it improve the team success? I think this team will prioritize health over regular season standings, so I would not be surprised if they sat some of these older vets to be ready for the playoffs.
Celtics - You know what you’re going to get with Tatum and Brown. The balance between Horford and “Time Lord” Robert Williams will be interesting at least if the two are healthy at the same time. Schroder and Josh Richardson will both have great opportunities to prove themselves to the league again.
Knicks - Added some good talent to a team that did overachieve last year by getting the 4 seed. Replacing Bullock and Elfrid Payton with Kemba and Fournier will boost the offense which could not do much against an average playoff defense in Atlanta last year. The Knicks may finish with a lower seeding this year but will be considered a better team.
Bulls - Great offensive talent, but you have to question the team defense. Billy Donovan will have to run drop coverage with Vucevic at center. I also question Derozan being in the closing lineups. I think I would rather have Caruso in the closing lineup with Ball to have more defense. Derozan could be the ball handler late in games with Lavine off-ball, but why would you not give it to Lavine.
Pacers - Very difficult team for me to pinpoint a season outlook. How much of the troubles from the season before stemmed from the team hating Bjorkgren? This season will be very telling for this roster as Carlisle comes in. Also will this finally be the season of the Sabonis-Turner divorce.
Wizards - Lose Westbrook, yes, but I think this team is much deeper than they were last year. Adding KCP, Harrell, and Kuzma from the Westbrook trade and Dinwiddie from free agency, the team is not as bad as people think. If Dinwiddie stays healthy for most of the season, I think they will capture the last play-in spot.
Hornets - Lamelo enters year two in Charlotte, but I’m not really sure where the team has gotten better. Maybe if Hayward can have a mostly healthy season, I could trust this team more, but they lose Devonte Graham and replace him with the rookie Bouknight. Maybe PJ Washington and Miles Bridges both take leaps, but besides Lamelo’s continual growth, I do not understand how this team can be clearly better from the year before
Raptors - Another interesting team as the Raptors draft Scottie Barnes to add to their bank of long, switchy, athletic wing defenders. I have no questions about the defense, but I have trouble seeing where the offense comes from with this team especially with Siakam missing the beginning of the season. Also, would not be surprised is Masai Ujiri decides to just pack in the season again and skip the play-in if they are hovering around the 10 seed.
Pistons - The Pistons have there piece in Cade Cunningham. Now it is time to determine who else on the current roster are long-time pieces. Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart were nice surprises last year for Pistons fans. Will Killian Hayes have a bounce back year from his previous disappointing season? Also, would not be surprised if Jerami Grant’s name begins popping up in trade rumors.
Cavs - Oh the Cavs. I just do not understand what the plan is for this team. They draft Evan Mobley with the third pick which no one disagrees with. But they give Jarrett Allen a 5-year, $100 million contract when Mobley’s ideal position is center. Ok, Mobley may not be ready to play center yet, so they get Lauri Markkanen in a sign and trade for 4 years, $67.5 million. And the team still has basically no wings except for Cedi Osman. Continue the on-court KLove tantrum watch.
Magic - The magic are entirely in rebuilding mode after trading the last member of the 8th seed Magic dynasty, Nikola Vucevic. Now they bring in 5th overall pick Jalen Suggs into the young backcourt of Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, and Markelle Fultz. They should have a respectable defense with the current personnel, especially when Jonathon Isaac returns, but this offense will be just atrocious. Look to see who of the young two guards, Anthony and Hampton, emerge to be the future running mate of Jalen Suggs.
West:
Jazz - The Jazz are just a machine for the regular season. I like the two additions of Whiteside and Rudy Gay. All Whiteside has to do is block shots and foul trouble should not be too much of an issue with an off-the-bench role. Gay gives them a potential small ball five option to test out before the playoffs. Also, look for a big jump in Donavon Mitchell this year. I believe this team is much better than the public perception they currently have.
Suns - Yes, the Suns did have injury luck on their way to the Finals last season. But this team is still very talented and most of these guys can still improve. The one issue I could see people mentioning is Chris Paul’s health, but he has had two full seasons in a row even though the NBA season stoppage may have helped with his Thunder tenure. Another team built for beating bad teams in the regular season.
Lakers - Always the talk of the town nowadays. I did not like the Westbrook trade especially with the news of adding Buddy Hield to this team while keeping KCP who I think was undervalued by Laker fans. Since the Lebron-AD combo began, defense has been the calling card of this team. But with the current roster, I question how far Coach Frank Vogel and center AD can carry the team defense. If they get the defense close to the past two seasons, I will begin to trust this Lakers team. I just cannot trust them as of right now.
Nuggets - Nuggets did not make any major moves besides replacing Paul Millsap with Jeff Green, which I think might be a downgrade, and adding the No. 26 pick in this years draft, Bones Hyland, who has a lot of people buzzing. Can Jokic carry this team until Jamal Murray returns from his torn ACL? The Nuggets were 16-8 without him last year, and I think an improved Michael Porter Jr. and more playing time and familiarity from Aaron Gordon will be enough to give the Nuggets one home series come playoff time.
Mavericks - The big news to me for this team is not roster changes because 1, there weren’t any really, and 2, the organization as a whole changed so much. Nico Harrison comes in as GM and hires Jason Kidd as coach. How much will Kidd affect this team is the key question. The Mavs lose one of the best coaches in the league, in Carlisle. If Kidd can somehow orchestrate a top 10 defense with this roster after being under Frank Vogel’s wing, then the hire could be justified.
Warriors - Definitely one of the more volatile teams to predict. Could host a playoff series or be involved in the play-in again this season especially if Curry misses times. Jordan Poole has looked real impressive in the preseason to carry the non-Curry offensive minutes. Klay Thompson’s return is major for this team, but to me, Klay’s health and how good he looks after coming back from two lower body injuries is more important to the Warriors making a postseason run rather than a regular season seeding run.
Blazers - Loved the addition of Larry Nance who can be a small ball PF for this team. Dame and this offense will be consistent as always, but how will the defense improve with new coach Chauncey Billups. The personnel should be better by simply getting rid of Melo and Kanter, but I do not think this roster will be improved enough to keep Dame happy.
Clippers - Kwahi will probably not be returning in enough time to sway the regular season standings in my opinion. But this roster still has great perimeter wings. Eric Bledsoe was a surprised addition to this team considering his troubling stint in New Orleans. If Reggie Jackson can continue or even get close to his unbelievable shooting from last season’s playoffs, this team could finish above the Blazers. PG13 will have the chance to build on his favorable perception he built for himself in last season’s playoffs. This team will give fits in closing minutes with the small lineup Ty Lue will throw out.
Grizzlies - I liked the theory of the Grizzlies offseason moves. You trade Valanciunas, who was a very important part of their team last year, away for Steven Adams, who I think is an ok center, for a higher draft pick. Now, it depends on if Zaire Williams will work out, but they also don’t have to worry about the contract extension for Jonas. This sets the stage for Jaren Jackson Jr. to prove he is worth being part of this teams future and being second fiddle to Ja Morant. I also expect Ja Morant to have a bigger leap this year than he did last season.
Pelicans - Now the homer pick. Honestly, I feel like this is a fair spot for the Pelicans even though I did have them above the Grizz until the news of Zion’s injury came out. David Griffin’s moves to put better pieces around Zion on paper make sense offensively, but Valanciunas is slightly worse defensively than Adams, and Graham’s defense is not near Lonzo’s ability. Zion being out for the first two weeks of the season, hopefully, won’t help the Pels get off on the right foot which has always been an issue for the franchise.
Twolves - My hesistancy with the Twolves is simply health. KAT had a tumultuous season last year to say the least, and DLo seems to get injured at some point every year. Maybe Chris Finch can get the team right with a full offseason and regular season. This team has pieces to make the play-in, it just depends on if everything can click.
Kings - Luke Walton returns as head coach to push this team into playoff contention. The team resigned Richaun Holmes who was great for them last year, but the Kings are basically relying on No. 9 pick Davion Mitchell to give this team a defensive mindset and culture which seems odd. I just do not think the organization improved this roster enough for them to be serious playoff contenders unless total centers on a roster help with playoff berths.
Spurs - The Spurs made a decent amount of moves like adding Doug McDermott, Zach Collins, and Thad Young from the Derozan sign and trade. But this year has to be looked at as a developmental year to find out which players (guards mostly) are the future for this team. Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Lonnie Walker all have something to prove this year, and you know Popovich is going to be pushing these guys no matter how good or bad they are.
Rockets - I think it is universally agreed that the Rockets killed the past draft. Now they just need to give the rookies playing and developmental time. However, the team also has some other areas that need to be determined. Does Kevin Porter Jr. have a future as the other lead guard with Jalen Green? Does Christian Wood actually have a future with the organization? At least Stephen Silas has a better feeling about his career choice after thinking he was going to be able to coach James Harden in the playoffs.
Thunder - While the Rockets had a great draft, the Thunder had to be disappointed with how the lottery went for them. They drafted Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, and Aaron Wiggins with Giddey being the highest pick at No. 6 overall. The Thunder will look to tank another year for better odds at the top pick in this upcoming draft, so I just do not expect much from them this season. Besides SGA and Lu Dort, casual NBA fans will not know anyone on this team unless they remember seeing Derrick Favors name in a trade tweet.
So this went a bit longer than I had expected, but it is my very first post. So for the betting picks I’ll add them quickly since I touched on each team. They are in order from most confident to least:
Jazz over 52.5
Rockets under 27.5
Spurs over 28.5
Wizards over 33.5
Suns over 51.5
Knicks over 41.5
To anyone who reads this, it is much appreciated. Hopefully you enjoy my thoughts on the page.