Two and a Half Week NBA Standings, Net Ratings, and Projected Wins
A deeper look into each NBA team's offensive and defensive stats so far into the young season.
The NBA season has been going for about two and a half weeks since the 75th season began on October 19th. After this timeline, the average NBA team has played 8 games +/- one which gives too small of a sample size to fully predict the future of all 30 teams in the association. I want to look at the current records, standings, and offensive and defensive ratings on every team throughout the league. On the Athletic’s “Nerder She Wrote” podcast, would hate to not give credit, they explained that the first 20 games of an NBA season are more relative to playoff success than the last 20 games of the season, but with some NBA stars struggling to start the season compared to the previous year and career averages, I would like to give these numbers more time to cement who is considered a top team in the league.
A few reasons have been given for lower offensive numbers experienced by teams and stars, from the previous NBA Spalding game ball being changed to a Wilson basketball to the new point of emphasis calls that deviate from non-basketball moves just to get free throws. I have enjoyed that the bs foul drawing tactics have been basically removed from the game, and the NBA is already looking into adjusting the rules for the increase in take or “euro” fouls being committed in transition. This rule should have been in place already as the G-League has a rule against this lazy tactic that stops easy transition points for the opposing team.
Now before the current east and west NBA standings, I will give the offensive, defensive, and net ratings of each team with the league-wide rankings. I also will give my preseason rankings in parentheses to compare the current standings, but on future standings posts, which I will do every 3 to 4 weeks, the previous rankings will be put in parentheses. If that’s confusing, I will probably make it easier to understand once you start looking at the standings.
Anyways, a quick explanation of how these stats are calculated. Offensive rating is the points a team scores per 100 possessions which is really an easy calculation where you just divide the total points scored by the number of possessions and multiply it by 100. Defensive rating is the exact same concept, the points a team gives up per 100 possessions, and the net rating is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating. Now, there is another calculation I found online at paceandspacehoops.com where you can predict a team’s win total by using their net rating. I know, real nerdy, but the equation is Wins = 40.99 + 2.515 * Net Rating. I wanted to present this just to give a better synopsis on how good or bad every team has started these first two and a half weeks of the season, and it gives a picture on if certain teams have been lucky/unlucky with their current amount of wins and losses or what they have been dealing with so far throughout the season. Also all stats were taken before the games occurring tonight, Friday November 5th, from NBA.com.
Let’s get into the East standings first:
Philadelphia 76ers (7-2): Preseason Prediction (4)
Offensive Rating: 115.0 (1st in the NBA)
Defensive Rating: 106.1 (12th in the NBA)
Net Rating: 8.9 (4th in the NBA)
Equivalent Wins: 63 Wins
The 76ers seem to be doing just fine without Ben Simmons. Seth Curry has been shooting lights out to start the season to counter act Joel Embiid’s slow start to the season offensively. The 76ers had two great wins this week against Portland and Chicago without secondary star Tobias Harris who is in the Health and Safety Protocols for Covid.
Miami Heat (6-2): Preseason Prediction (5)
Offensive Rating: 111.2 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 98.6 (2nd)
Net Rating: 12.5 (2nd)
Equivalent Wins: 72 WINS
The Miami Heat could not have started the season better in my opinion, besides being undefeated. Tyler Herro would win 6th Man of the Year if the season suddenly shutdown because of some global phenomenon the league has probably never experienced before. Jimmy Butler is one of the few stars to not deal with a large dip from his free throw attempts with the new rules set, and their defense has been as advertised.
Chicago Bulls (6-2): Preseason Prediction (8)
Offensive Rating: 108.8 (9th)
Defensive Rating: 101.8 (5th)
Net Rating: 7.0 (5th)
Equivalent Wins: 59 Wins
Chicago has been the media darlings of the start of the season. I would hold off my opinions until next time I review the standings as the Bulls have a tough stretch of games against plenty of playoff teams. They hand the Jazz their one lost when Mike Conley was out of the lineup, but their defense has been the calling card for them including Demar Derozan possibly playing the best ball of his career right now.
Toronto Raptor (6-3): Preseason Prediction (12)
Offensive Rating: 107.4 (14th)
Defensive Rating: 102.4 (6th)
Net Rating: 5.0 (6th)
Equivalent Wins: 54 Wins
WE ARE THE FOURTH (seed). The Raptor’s 4th overall pick, Scottie Barnes, has arguably been the best rookie so far this season. An interesting stat, Toronto is on a 5 game win streak once head coach Nick Nurse took Goran Dragic out of the lineup. OG Anunoby has been getting buzz for winning the Most Improved Player of the Year award lately as well - he was my bet to win it.
Brooklyn Nets (5-3): Preseason Prediction (1)
Offensive Rating: 104.9 (20th)
Defensive Rating: 104.1 (8th)
Net Rating: 0.9 (10th)
Equivalent Wins: 43 Wins
Brooklyn has started off the season fairly slow. In a way, this could arguably be Steve Nash’s actual rookie coaching season as the staff last year was stacked with veteran coaches like Mike D’Antoni. I think the large amount of veteran wings added to this roster mucked up the rotations. Also, James Harden does not look to be into playing shape just yet, and yes, his free throw rate down is considerably from his career averages, but the rate was already decreasing last year once he joined Brooklyn. Also, watching the games, he isn’t attacking the rim as much as he normally does when he is in proper playing shape.
New York Knicks (5-3): Preseason Prediction (7)
Offensive Rating: 112.2 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 109.7 (23rd)
Net Rating: 2.5 (7th)
Equivalent Wins: 47 Wins
BING BONG. The Knicks have been great offensively with additions Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier giving some off the dribble 3-point shooting. The defense is definitely not where head coach Tom Thibodeau would like, but the additions mentioned are not known for their defense. Once Nerlens Noel returns from injury, it will be interesting how much the defense can jump.
Washington Wizards (5-3): Preseason Prediction (10)
Offensive Rating: 107.0 (15th)
Defensive Rating: 106.2 (13th)
Net Rating: 0.8 (11th)
Equivalent Wins: 43 Wins
Rooting for this Wizards team as they were one of my over wins bet and they’ve been a pleasant surprise to start the season. Bradley Beal has struggled slightly from his career averages, so the offense could be better in the future. 2nd-year pro Deni Avdija has been a great switchable defender for the team, and 3rd-year pro Rui Hachimura has recently returned back to the team as he has not played yet this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers (5-4): Preseason Prediction (14)
Offensive Rating: 105.4 (19th)
Defensive Rating: 105.6 (11th)
Net Rating: -0.2 (17th)
Equivalent Wins: 40 Wins
Evan Mobley. He looks to be the main reason this team has been so solid to start the season. He can guard multiple positions like his draft scouting reports stated, and offensively, he can space just enough for Jarrett Allen to remain on the floor in closing lineups. I have only watched their one game against the Charlotte Hornets, but the storyline now focuses back on how the organization will handle the Collin Sexton extension.
Charlotte Hornets (5-4): Preseason Prediction (11)
Offensive Rating: 111.1 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 110.8 (27th)
Net Rating: 0.3 (14th)
Equivalent Wins: 42 Wins
My one name for this team has to be Miles Bridges. Rumor has it his camp wanted around $20 million a year for his extension, and the organization did not feel safe giving that amount. Well, if he keeps up this play, he will deserve it. I think Lamelo has not had the big leap people were expecting so far this season, and the overall team defense is struggling. Maybe more minutes for PJ Washington could fix this.
Milwaukee Bucks (4-4): Preseason Prediction (2)
Offensive Rating: 107.4 (13th)
Defensive Rating: 106.7 (15th)
Net Rating: 0.6 (12th)
Equivalent Wins: 42 Wins
The Bucks have been hit with the injury bug early on in the season. Jrue Holiday will make his return back to the court soon as he has missed every game since opening night against the Nets. Brook Lopez has also missed time, but Giannis has been tremendous this season as he has increasing in his free throw percentage, 3-point percentage, and 3-point attempts per game.
Boston Celtics (4-5): Preseason Prediction (6)
Offensive Rating: 103.8 (21st)
Defensive Rating: 105.4 (10th)
Net Rating: -1.6 (22nd)
Equivalent Wins: 37 Wins
It cannot be good that Boston already had to hold a player’s only meeting within the first three weeks of the season, but Boston did bounce back and beat the former number one team in the east, the Miami Heat. Jayson Tatum has been abysmal from 3-point range this season, but I think Robert Williams has been better this year defensively. Ime Udoka has had a troubling start to his head coaching career, but not the worst one throughout the league.
Atlanta Hawks (4-5): Preseason Prediction (3)
Offensive Rating: 107.5 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 109.8 (24th)
Net Rating: -2.3 (23rd)
Equivalent Wins: 35 Wins
The Hawks have a terrible Net Rating, but I think it might just stem from their early schedule as their past five games have been against the 76ers, Nets, Jazz, and Wizards twice. The only win from that stretch was one against the Washington, and Trae Young has started the season off fairly rough. Maybe the new refereeing is throwing him off to start the season or it is just the small sample size. He is shooting 40.7% from the field and 25.5% from 3-point range as of today.
Indiana Pacers (3-6): Preseason Prediction (9)
Offensive Rating: 109.0 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 109.4 (22nd)
Net Rating: -0.3 (18th)
Equivalent Wins: 40 Wins
The Pacers have been in some tough games to start the season and have been competitive in just about all of them, and the Net Rating reflects that. Chris Duarte has been a plug and play rookie for the team averaging around 35 minutes per game while shooting 43% from 3. I think this team is better than the record shows, and Rick Carlisle has this team in the top ten on offense.
Orlando Magic (2-7): Preseason Prediction (15)
Offensive Rating: 103.2 (25th)
Defensive Rating: 111.4 (29th)
Net Rating: -8.3 (28th)
Equivalent Wins: 20 Wins
The Magic’s two wins came from a win against the Knicks after the Knicks had a back to back and the Twolves. The 5th pick in the draft, Jalen Suggs, has struggled starting the season, especially with running the pick and roll. He is currently shooting 30.5% from the field and 23.5% from 3-point range. The 8th pick however, Franz Wagner, has started well shooting 49.5% from the field and 41.7% from 3-point range.
Detroit Pistons (1-7): Preseason Prediction (13)
Offensive Rating: 97.1 (30th)
Defensive Rating: 110.0 (26th)
Net Rating: -12.9 (30th)
Equivalent Wins: 9 Wins
Cade Cunningham missing the start of the season had to be a bummer for fans of the team, but Cade has also been a little underwhelming in his first three games of his NBA career. He is 7 for 39 for all of his shots and 1 for 21 on 3’s. An ankle injury is tough for jump shooters to play through and comeback from and everything else about his game has been solid besides his shooting numbers. Detroit cannot have two lottery picks in a row be terrible shooters, but Cade has a large sample size of being a good one before he was in the league.
Now the West standings:
Utah Jazz (7-1): Preseason Prediction (1)
Offensive Rating: 113.2 (2nd in the NBA)
Defensive Rating: 100.3 (3rd in the NBA)
Net Rating: 12.9 (1st in the NBA)
Equivalent Wins: 73 WINS
The Jazz continue to be a machine for the regular season with their one loss coming against the Chicago Bulls. They hold the highest Net Rating after the Miami Heat lost to the Boston Celtics 95 - 78 on Thursday night. Rudy Gobert has been featured in some NBA MVP ladders much to the chagrin of NBA Twitter, but this should not surprise anyone who payed attention last year as some media members gave him votes last year.
Golden State Warriors (6-1): Preseason Prediction (6)
Offensive Rating: 106.9 (16th)
Defensive Rating: 97.1 (1st)
Net Rating: 9.7 (3rd)
Equivalent Wins: 65 Wins
The Warriors hold the number one defensive rating in the league right now following the number five defensive rating last year. The offense could receive a boost if Jordan Poole remained more consistent on that end of the floor, and he seems to be the only member of the team capable of handling the offensive load when Steph Curry is not on the floor. I am not prepared to label them as top title contenders, but they are flirting in that area.
Dallas Mavericks (5-3): Preseason Prediction (5)
Offensive Rating: 101.8 (27th)
Defensive Rating: 106.9 (16th)
Net Rating: -5.1 (25th)
Equivalent Wins: 28 Wins
By looking at the Net Rating, the Mavs are one of the luckiest teams in the league with their current win total. Jason Kidd is already receiving flack for how the offense is currently. This team has been at the top of the league in this category basically since Luka has joined the team. However, a deeper look into the stats show that Dallas has not made open shots which hopefully for the team’s sake, and Kidd’s potentially, will not last throughout the season.
Memphis Grizzlies (5-3): Preseason Prediction (9)
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (7th)
Defensive Rating: 112.6 (30th)
Net Rating: -2.8 (24th)
Equivalent Wins: 34 Wins
The Grizzlies are such a fun team to watch with Ja Morant running the offense. The defense has been an issue especially with their lead point of attack defender, Dillon Brooks, still being out after having surgery for a broken left hand in the off-season. This team has also had a very difficult schedule to start the season facing a playoff team in every game except for their season opener against Cleveland.
Phoenix Suns (4-3): Preseason Prediction (2)
Offensive Rating: 106.3 (18th)
Defensive Rating: 107.3 (19th)
Net Rating: -1.0 (20th)
Equivalent Wins: 38 Wins
I noted it during the Pelicans - Phoenix game recap, but this team started the season off pretty rough saying this team made the Finals last year. Cam Payne being out does hurt their second units since Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet have to be the lead guards in those moments of the game, but I trust Chris Paul and this team’s core to right the ship as the season continues.
Los Angeles Lakers (5-4): Preseason Prediction (3)
Offensive Rating: 107.4 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 107.2 (17th)
Net Rating: 0.2 (15th)
Equivalent Wins: 41 Wins
The Lakers have been a bit troubling to start the season. They have given the tanking through a shitty roster, Oklahoma City Thunder, their only two wins so far this season. I said in the preseason standings piece that this team’s calling card has always been its defense in the Lebron-AD era, and as seen in the stats, that has not been the case. Trevor Ariza is out for this team, but I doubt he will help out that much. Russell Westbrook gambles too much defensively and loses guys when he is guarding off-ball, and while Melo has been great as a spot-up shooter for these guys, his defense will always be worrisome.
Denver Nuggets (4-4): Preseason Prediction (4)
Offensive Rating: 102.0 (26th)
Defensive Rating: 100.6 (4th)
Net Rating: 1.4 (8th)
Equivalent Wins: 45 Wins
How in the world does a Nikola Jokic team 26th on offense and 4th on defense? He’s an offensive genius type of center and slow, unathletic, white guy defensively. Well, the issue has been two things mainly. The second units have been absolutely dreadful when they are on the floor. With the current roster, there is no real creator on this team besides Will Barton. And you might say, “Well Michael Porter Jr. can get any shot he wants,” which is true to an extent. But he doesn’t actually create any of his shots. He struggles beating guys off of the dribble and really just tries to shoot over guys, and so far this season, those shots just are not going in.
Sacramento Kings (4-4): Preseason Prediction (12)
Offensive Rating: 108.7 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 109.9 (25th)
Net Rating: -1.2 (21st)
Equivalent Wins: 38 Wins
Sacramento has done well enough in the early portion of the season to stay in conversation of the play-in spots. Davion Mitchell has had some early season defensive highlights against some of the top offensive threats in the league. Buddy Hield has embraced his role as 6th man on this team and is shooting the shit out of the ball - 40.5% from 3 on 10 3-point attempts a game. Harrison Barnes has also started the season off hot, playing some of the best basketball in his career. If Fox and Haliburton can be more consistent with their expected production, this team will continue to be solid throughout the season.
LA Clippers - Legal name, not Los Angeles (3-4): Preseason Prediction (8)
Offensive Rating: 103.6 (22nd)
Defensive Rating: 103.1 (7th)
Net Rating: 0.6 (13th)
Equivalent Wins: 42 Wins
Paul George has been great for this team, but the team overall has not shot from 3 nearly as good as they did last year - shooting 35.7% this year compared to 40.5% last year. Reggie Jackson has not been in the same mode as he was in the playoffs last year which I do not think anyone should have really expected. Luke Kennard has stepped up decently with his larger role on the team with Kwahi out, as well.
Minnesota Timberwolves (3-4): Preseason Prediction (11)
Offensive Rating: 103.4 (23rd)
Defensive Rating: 104.3 (9th)
Net Rating: -1.0 (19th)
Equivalent Wins: 38 Wins
The Timberwolves started out the season great defensively mainly through forcing a lot of turnovers, but that turnover luck has seemed to runout as they played teams besides the Rockets and Zion-less Pelicans. Anthony Edwards is still inconsistent from a night to night or even quarter to quarter basis, but that number one overall pick talent is clearly there. D’Angelo Russell has been a bit underwhelming to start the season as this teams lead guard. My main question is how much will the defense decrease, as I believe it will, and if they can kick up the offense enough to cancel it out. A 38 win team should be close to that 10th seed for the play-in mix.
Portland Trail Blazers (3-5): Preseason Prediction (7)
Offensive Rating: 109.9 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 108.8 (20th)
Net Rating: 1.1 (9th)
Equivalent Wins: 44 Wins
The main issue to worry about this team currently is how much are Dame Lillard’s struggles real. They currently have the 6th best offensive in the league, and a normal Dame would increase this teams win total including their recent game against Philadelphia. On the defensive end, I think Larry Nance Jr. has to play more especially in the closing minutes of the game. Chauncey Billups has also had some questionable defensive schemes in some of their games.
Oklahoma City Thunder (2-6): Preseason Prediction (15)
Offensive Rating: 98.0 (29th)
Defensive Rating: 108.9 (21st)
Net Rating: -10.9 (29th)
Equivalent Wins: 14 Wins
Oklahoma City had two incredible wins against the Lakers, and they would be fine with those being the only two this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the top isolation scorers this year, probably because if he called for a screen, he would get doubled every time. Josh Giddey has been very impressive this season, showing the ability to pass, defend, and score of the bounce decently.
San Antonio Spurs (2-6): Preseason Prediction (13)
Offensive Rating: 106.4 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 106.4 (14th)
Net Rating: 0.0 (16th)
Equivalent Wins: 41 Wins
The Spurs have been competitive in almost all of their games, and Jakob Poeltl has been a great defensive center for this team, although he did suffer a right MCL sprain which will keep him out for at least five games. But looking at the Net Rating, this team will fight and be a tough match every night as long as Poeltl does not miss an extended amount of time.
Houston Rockets (1-7): Preseason Prediction (14)
Offensive Rating: 100.1 (28th)
Defensive Rating: 107.3 (18th)
Net Rating: -7.2 (26th)
Equivalent Wins: 23 Wins
I expected the Rockets defensive number to be much lower than 18th in the league. Jalen Green shows flashes of being an offensive force in the league hitting stepback and side-step 3’s. This team is just trying to get these young guys as much experience as possible.
New Orleans Pelicans - *verbal sigh* (1-8): Preseason Prediction (10)
Offensive Rating: 103.3 (24th)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (28th)
Net Rating: -7.6 (27th)
Equivalent Wins: 22 Wins
The Pelicans have simply not gotten enough production out of the young guys they expected to and frankly have needed for this season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been terrible on jumpers this season, and if he can only make layups in the paint, then he can’t be on the floor the same time as Zion. Valanciunas has been tagged with holding up the offense while Brandon Ingram has been out with a hip contusion, and Devonte Graham has done descent enough as a starting point guard but has not really wowed much with his play. With Zion’s timeline back from injury still being a question mark, New Orleans feels like a dark abyss where you are not sure how deep it goes.